Will Retail Spending & Holiday Shopping Plummet at the End of 2023?

Black Friday Sales & Card Transaction Data from Facteus May Hold Key Answers

Inflation, rising interest rates, and more have turned the screws on consumers in 2023, raising serious concerns among retailers about holiday spending and how fourth-quarter sales will pan out.

In fact, retailers and others have been anticipating shifts and shrinkage in consumer spending for some time, bracing for holiday shopping declines for months.

Those fears and projections were amplified when sales for Amazon Prime Day in July 2023 fell ~3.5% short of expert forecasts. 

Despite that, consumer spending and card transaction data from Facteus — including Black Friday sales data and data from the Oct. 2023 Prime Big Deal Day — could offer some essential perspective and insights. 

Showing subdued growth year over year and trends in holiday shopping, alternative data from Facteus could help retailers finetune their expectations about Christmas and end-of-year consumer spending. It may also reveal critical market and competitive intelligence, highlighting how some retailers may be able to make the most of the last shopping days of 2023. 

Why Retailers Expect Less Spending for 2023 Holiday Shopping 

Retail shopping won’t break any records in December 2023, many predict, and that’s not just because of inflationary pressures. Along with those drains on wallets and budgets, many consumers are also facing.

Rising Prices

From groceries, gas, and necessities to extras, like concert tickets and amusement park visits, costs are going up almost across the board, and consumers are feeling it. Some are admittedly dropping their holiday shopping budgets to avoid spending too much this year. That has retailers worried about subpar sales, especially if they aren’t offering discounts at the right times.

Student Loan Payments

Holds and freezes on these payments have disappeared for many consumers, reactivating a bill that, for some, is substantial.

Rising Interest Rates

Shoppers who are spending more, buying a house, or using financing to make any purchase right now face extraordinarily high interest rates. That’s making it exceptionally expensive for holiday shoppers to buy big-ticket items that would require financing. It could also mean that some consumers are buying much cheaper gifts, retailers worry.

Other Factors

Diminished to zeroed-out savings have left some consumers without much of a financial safety net. Others have found themselves out of jobs as 2023 winds down, leaving dwindling to no income available to buy gifts. Retailers don’t expect big spending from consumers dealing with these issues. 

This may seem like “writing on the wall” with regard to 2023 holiday shopping and spending, and many retailers have read it as such. 

Nevertheless, this is only part of the bigger picture, and it doesn’t account for consumer shopping behaviors, trends, and data in recent months (particularly when dialing into specific industries, like the fitness industry).

A Look at 2023 Black Friday & October Prime Day Sales

Card transaction data from shopping holidays in Oct. and Nov. 2023 don’t totally match retailer expectations or necessarily pull the alarm for major revenue concerns. Alternatively, an analysis of 2023 Black Friday data and October Prime Day sales data reveals that consumer spending has not plummeted, despite market and financial pressures.

It’s quite the opposite in fact, with consumer spending holding relatively strong, and: 

• Black Friday sales data shows ~6% year-over-year (YoY) growth.

• October Prime Day shopping grew by ~2% in 2023, when compared to 2022. 

That has disrupted the recent trend from ~2019 through 2021, which meant higher sales for both shopping holidays, but it has not fulfilled retailer expectations of huge drops in holiday spending.

Still, some consumers say they plan to change their shopping behaviors for the 2023 gift buying season in light of current conditions and in response to greater financial stresses. 

2023 Holiday Shopping: How Will Consumer Spending Behaviors Change?

Alternative data and market research have highlighted some ways consumers may adjust their spending behaviors as they buy gifts over the last days of 2023.

That’s revealed that some shoppers could be: 

• Reducing their gift budget to a minimum

• Shopping around or holding out for the best possible deals

• Buying very little over the last weeks of 2023 because they shopped for gifts earlier in the year

Some consumers aren’t adjusting their budgets or behaviors at all this year. 

Find out why.

More Consumer Shopping & Card Transaction Data Insights