Food services and drinking places
Total Sector Spending
Overall spending trends across an industry sector
What's the story behind the data?
Spending across food services and drinking places has shown steady resilience, with notable spikes in November, April, and May. These peaks coincide with seasonal dining patterns (holiday gatherings and spring outings), consistent with historical retail calendar trends and restaurant traffic patterns. Notably, spending is strongest among Gen Z and Baby Boomers—a dual-cohort dynamic that reflects younger consumers’ social dining behavior and older consumers’ return to dine-in formats.
Our transaction data shows McDonald’s continues to dominate in market share (30%+), though Chipotle leads in average order value. These divergent signals point to value versus quality positioning across QSR brands. Q1 earnings from Chipotle and Starbucks support this pattern, with both citing strong performance among higher-income, frequent-visit consumers—which matches our data’s AOV and loyalty indicators.
Strategic Takeaways by Audience
FP&A / Strategy Teams
- Expect reliable seasonal surges in November (holiday travel and gatherings), April (spring return to socialization), and May (graduations, Mother’s Day). Internal planning should align with labor and supply cost buffers.
- Brands like Chipotle and Chick-fil-A outperform on AOV, signaling pricing power or customer willingness to trade up—relevant for margin forecasting.
- Income-level analysis shows resilience in <$75K households, especially under $50K. Teams should maintain focus on affordability levers for price-sensitive demand.
Marketing and Brand Teams
- Gen Z is a primary growth lever—evidenced by high sector share and repeat dining behavior. Campaigns should lean into convenience, speed, and social proof.
- Baby Boomers show return strength—dining out more consistently than pre-COVID norms. This segment may respond to dine-in experience positioning and loyalty perks.
- Chipotle and Starbucks punch above their weight in AOV. Messaging can emphasize menu innovation, freshness, and quality to preserve this advantage.
Investors
- The QSR sector remains a defensive, volume-driven channel with selective AOV upside. Our data aligns with recent earnings calls noting frequency gains in casual dining.
- Chipotle and Chick-fil-A continue to stand out on spend per visit. Chipotle reported a 7% YoY increase in AOV and noted higher-income urban consumers as a driver.
- McDonald’s maintains dominant share but shows flatter AOV growth—a sign of plateauing basket sizes despite loyalty and mobile ordering investments.
Top Brands by Market Share
Leading brands ranked by market share within sector
Trends + Insights
1. Total Sector Spending
Spending is seasonal but resilient, with pronounced growth in November, April, and May—all correlating with holiday and seasonal occasion spikes. QSR earnings confirm higher traffic and order volumes during these months.
2. Sector Spending by Income
Low-to-mid income groups (<$75K) show strongest wallet share, supporting QSR and fast casual value positioning. Higher-income segments are slightly negative, likely due to shifting discretionary categories or preference for dine-in full-service formats.
3. Sector Spending by Generation
Baby Boomers and Gen Z lead this category, with the latter signaling sustained demand around convenience and mobile-first behavior. Millennials appear to under-index—possibly due to lifestyle shifts, inflation, or at-home meal preferences.
4. Top Brands by Market Share
McDonald’s leads significantly at ~30%, followed by Starbucks and Chick-fil-A. The long tail is more competitive, with Taco Bell, Dunkin, and Chipotle vying for mindshare. Starbucks earnings recently noted strong loyalty program gains despite slight transaction pressure.
5. Top Brands by AOV
Chipotle ($18+) and Chick-fil-A (~$16) show premium AOVs, highlighting stronger bundled orders or pricing power. McDonald’s and Dunkin remain sub-$12. This dynamic supports margin segmentation across QSR formats and brand maturity.
Top Brands by AOV
Leading brands ranked by average order value within sector
This macro sector analysis provides detailed insights into economic trends and consumer behavior patterns. The visualizations below are derived from real-world transaction data and economic indicators.
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Sector Spending by Income Bracket
Industry sector spending patterns by household income level
Sector Spending by Generation
Industry sector spending patterns by generational cohort
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