INSIGHTS ON CHANGING CONSUMER BEHAVIOR

Facteus Insight Report on Consumer Spending and Transactions (FIRST)
Daily Consumer Spending Index

The daily US consumer spend index shows the percentage change in spending on a daily basis, compared to consumer spending in 2019.

FIRST REPORT: APRIL 29, 2020

Our sixth installment of the FIRST report is very similar to last week’s report, as firms that can accommodate life in a social-distanced world are doing well or are returning back to pre-crisis growth rates, while firms that are incompatible with consumers staying home continue to struggle. With news that some restrictions are starting to be lifted, we will be paying a bit closer attention to sectors hit the hardest in the next couple of weeks to see if there are any signs of improvement.

RETAIL

All segments of the Discount category were strong the week ending April 26, with Discount Stores up 52% year over year, Wholesale Clubs up 28%, and Variety Stores rebounding sharply, up 27% year-over-year. Another week of stimulus checks showing up seems to be providing some strength in this sector.

The Consumer Home Supply sector continued to be strong in the week of April 26, growing 49% year over year, though down a bit from the prior week. This sector, much like the Discount sector, seems to be getting a boost from government stimulus payments.

Consumer spending at Amazon continued to out-pace its retailing rival Walmart, with year-over-year growth hitting 80% and 18%, respectively. The gap between the two narrowed a bit however, as Amazon’s growth fell from its torrid pace the prior week. Amazon seems to be adjusting well to the “new normal” as it appears to be able to support unprecedented demand.

ENTERTAINMENT

The Restaurant segment was essentially flat from the prior week, with Fast Food restaurants continuing to outperform the overall segment. So far, it does not appear that stimulus dollars are having an outsized impact on the restaurant space.

The Video Games segment finally appears to be cooling off a bit, with spending growing 70% year over year during the week ending April 26, down from a staggering 111% the week prior. The strength in this segment is impressive.

TRAVEL

Not much to be said about the broader travel space, as both Air Travel and Lodging continue to see declines between 80-95% year-over-year. With signs that some cities/states are starting to ease restrictions a bit, we will be watching this sector for tangible signs of improvement, though that may not emerge for some time.

HEALTHCARE

Consumer spending at Drug Stores and Pharmacies appears to be converging back to pre-crisis trends, with year over year spending flat during the week of April 26. Given that spending on typical items found at these retailers are often “necessary” and aren’t as frequently found in ecommerce channels, this reversion to normal makes sense.

Investment Intelligence from Transaction Data

The Facteus suite of products is designed to meet the needs of all participants in the asset management ecosystem, from large systematic funds to small long-only asset managers, venture capital funds, and private equity firms. Our newest product, Enlightmint, gives you access to the same transaction insights behind our Consumer Economic Impact reports, delivered via a SaaS platform with a powerful, intuitive, Tableau-based user interface.

Enlightmint delivers granular insights on changes and trends in transaction amounts and transaction frequency across hundreds of companies and stock tickers. The transaction data has also gone through a rigorous process to ensure individual consumer privacy is maintained. Through a patent-pending data synthesizing process, we go well beyond trying to anonymize or “clean” a transaction and instead create a synthetic copy of that transaction.

The resulting synthetic data maintains the statistical value of the original transaction while removing all personally identifiable information to keep consumer information private. To learn more visit https://enlightmint.facteus.com.

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